This is the last of a series of four blogs about quantum computing. The first was a quick view into the weird world of quantum physics, followed by a look at was capabilities a quantum computer would have. Last time we looked at the significant implications a quantum computer will have on data security.
Here are some examples of where we are today:
- MIT has created a five-qubit quantum computer (Science, March 2016).
- The Canadian company D-Wave Systems shipped its first quantum computer in 2010 with 128 qubits. D-Wave has announced the availability of the D-Wave 2X system with more than 1,000 qubits. On the other hand, there are lots of skeptics about whether what D-Wave is creating is really a quantum computer. It clearly uses some quantum capabilities, but if I understand it correctly (a big “if”), it deliberately avoids using superposition and quantum entanglement. If so, it will limit their quantum computer capabilities. However, they are way ahead of anybody else in actually building a computer based on quantum concepts.
- The Australian company Shoal created a quantum computer for the Australian Department of Defense in 2014, and then spun off QxBranch as a quantum computing software company working closely with D-Wave.
- California-based Rigetti Computing is developing fault-tolerant gate-based solid state quantum processors that they claim is highly scalable and low cost.
The largest prime number successfully factored by a quantum computer is 56,153 (241 x 233). At this point, the time to factor that 16-bit number with a quantum computer is longer than the time to factor it on modern classical computer. Today’s modern encryption keys have up to 768 bits.
How long will it take to have a quantum computer large enough to threaten today’s network security practices? It took 25 years from the first digital computer (Eniac, 1946) until computers were powerful enough and ubiquitous enough to create the first primitive networks (ARPANET, 1971). It took another 19 years until Tim Berners-Lee created the first web browser in 1990 and the formation of the Internet. It won’t take that long to get real quantum computers, maybe twenty years but more likely closer to ten.
The last word:
You don’t have to worry about a quantum computer cracking your network security and exposing all of your secrets. Yet. You do need to remain vigilant because sometime there will be such a quantum computer. You can bet the first such computers will be deep inside organizations like the US National Security Agency (NSA) and similar organizations in other countries.
For those of us who lived through or even participated in the space race, one of the significant differences between the US and the USSR was openness: the US did everything in public, the USSR did everything in secret and only revealed their successes after the fact. These days, the NSA acts much more like the Soviet model, keeping a tight rein on security products, and with the ability and inclination to prevent technologies from entering the marketplace until the NSA is ready.
Our first indication of the existence of a powerful quantum computer may be the successful attack on a nation’s political, military, financial or physical infrastructure.
Keep your sense of humor.