On 15 January 2014, George Osborne stated at the Open Europe Conference, “Europe accounts for just over 7% of the world’s population, 25% of its economy, and 50% of global social welfare spending.” The Right Honourable George Osborne, MP, is the current Chancellor of the Exchequer in England, the equivalent to the Treasury Secretary in the United States. On the surface, this seems like a typical politician’s claim and subject to doubt. But it is likely true.
According to Eurostat, the 27 nations that make up the European Union account for around 7.2% of the world’s population. If you include European nations that are not part of the EU, then it rises to 10.5%. Also according to Eurostat, the EU nations make up 25.8% of the world GDP (about 30% if you include all European nations). So if Mr. Osborne really meant the EU, he is spot on for the first two claims. The last number is a lot harder to pin down. Mr. Osborne credits German Chancellor Angela Merkel for the claim, but fullfact.org has not yet received an answer from the Chancellor’s office. In 2012 the World Bank published a report that Europe accounted for 58% of the world’s social welfare spending. This number included 36 countries as “European,” which includes the 27 EU members. So maybe the 50% number is reasonable for the EU.
Is it any wonder that the millions fleeing from the Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Kosovo, Albania, Pakistan, Eritrea, Nigeria, Iran and the Ukraine head to Europe? They are certainly not heading for Africa or Russia, even though Russia has a lot of empty space to house hundreds of thousands of refugees. Just as for many of the people who cross into the US from Mexico and further south, many of these people steaming into Europe are really economic refugees. On average in 2015, each EU country had 260 applicants for each 100,000 in local population, but of course it was not eevnly spread among the EU countries. Hungary had 1,799 applicants for each 100,000 in population, while Spain had 32.
Clearly the majority of these immigrants are fleeing terrible conditions where their lives are at great risk. In my view, these people are refugees that the receiving countries have some responsibility to deal with. But we see in the daily pictures from Europe, many able-bodied 18-35 year old men and women with no accompanying children. These people have no pride in their own land; they are not willing to stay and fight for their country and their culture. How much investment will they have in their new country?
This war-fed migration pales when compared with the fleeing masses during and after World War II. Some estimates put the European component of fleeing refugees at 60 million, with over a million of them still trying to find a place to settle five years after the conflict ended.
Perhaps the biggest difference between then and now is that this war still goes on. ISIS and other organizations still want to take over the world by any means. This migration provides the perfect opportunity for ISIS to infiltrate hundreds of fighters and organizers into Europe, and no way for the European countries to verify the identity and background of any of these people.
Another importance difference between now and just after World War II is the ability of these migrants to communicate. In some cases, and for really good reasons, these migrants are being given smart phones. They are an easy way for the authorities to provide information on where to get help and what options are available, and for the migrants to communicate with family members already in Europe. It also provides a way for the few invaders to communicate among themselves and with any sleeper agents or groups already in place.
The last word:
The US government created the Transportation Security Administration, with an annual budget of more than US$7 billion. The main result of this expense is to inconvenience the more than 800 million passengers in the US each year, adding wait hours to every passenger just to get on the plane. Based on the absence of any “we stopped this attack” information from TSA, it seems that actual attacks are stopped by passengers or crew, not TSA. TSA does provide a weekly report that, on average, reads like found six “artfully concealed prohibited items,” about a dozen weapons (mostly small pen knives), and arrested about a passenger a day for “suspicious behavior” or fraudulent travel documents. There is no indication that any of these incidents actually posed a threat to passengers. Rather, the long queues at checkpoints create clusters of people that are prime targets for those wishing to do us harm.
Keep your sense of humor.